Pathways identification

Alongside traditional planning processes, which start in the present and plan out to the future, sits foresight – using the future to plan back to the present. Known as backcasting, this method requires groups to inhabit a future state and plan backwards. Commonly, the outcome of this process indicates the gap between the required ‘present state’ the organisation needs to inhabit in order to reach the preferred ‘future state’, as well as the current ‘present state’. It is often this gap that stops organisations achieving future goals.

Foresight also asks some interesting questions about the present state of the organisation and the willingness to change this in order to be different in the future. Many times, I have worked with groups that have a vision to be very different in the future. They know they cannot continue to operate in the same manner, but when asked “what will you stop?” very often the answer is “nothing”.

A foundation rule when working with the future is that you cannot expect to have a future that is different if you continue to operate the same way you do in the present. If we want the future to be different, then we need to be different now.

Foresight will also uncover the assumptions we make about the pathways that may be taken. In economically straightened times, assuming that more cash will have to become available for you to achieve future success, is an assumption that needs to be challenged. Any phrase that starts with “they” should have questions asked about the research/evidence on which it is based. Too often organisations expect others to act in particular ways, or assume they have influence over the actions of others, and these assumptions must too be questioned.

Foresight is a robust process through which pathways to preferred future states can be generated. It opens up thinking spaces for groups to engage in creative conversations about possible ways in which activities can be undertaken, choices made and actions planned.

Innovation sandbox

As the future has yet to happen, it provides a place for play and innovation. Using the future to ask people to generate new ideas about what might be possible is a creative and engaging activity.

The future often lacks the political pressures that are so often present in organisations. Removing these and asking people to navigate future challenges and opportunities generates a space where anything is possible and innovation can occur.  Reframing the current understanding of a problem, taking different perspectives or allowing the future to emerge through the group are all ways in which we can ‘play in in the sandbox’.

It is the introduction of this type of space that can be liberating for many organisations, giving people the permission to be ridiculous and allow ideas to bubble to the surface, which can then be developed into new products, services or organisational activities.

If innovation in your organisation appears to be the same ideas rehashed time and again, then sometimes the current environment isn’t helping. You may need to liberate the group for a short period into a space that is different, unbounded and new. Foresight processes can be crafted to create such a space for your organisation to play.

This two part series has introduced a high level view of what foresight can bring to your organisation. We work with you to build knowledge and capacity, to teach you how to fish, rather than give you a meal.  If this is something your organisation could benefit from, ask us how we might assist!

The post How can we use the future to plan (part 2)? appeared first on The Dragonfly Collective.

Foresight is the practice of using the discipline of futures studies by foresight practitioners or futurists. Futures studies is the study of the future which can be conceived of in a number of ways such as the:

• Empirical tradition, which focuses on trend analysis and prediction, originated in the USA.
• Critical tradition originated in Europe and grew out of a critique of what was perceived as an overly empirical approach to futures in the USA.
• Cultural tradition arose to include non-Western cultures and to invoke a deeper consideration of civilisational and planetary futures.
• Empowerment-oriented, prospective, action research approach began in Europe in the nineties and has been taken up by some Australian researchers.
• Integral/transdisciplinary futures approach is emerging and has the potential for authentic multiperspectival and planetary inclusion (World Futures Studies Federation).

At its simplest, strategic foresight is the conscious use of the future in organisations; usually as part of a strategic thinking process that precedes planning. My work in organisations starts with the premise that the future doesn’t yet exist, it is open and shapeable, we have choices in the present and it is those that create our future.

This is not to ignore the structures and long cycles of change in societies and organisations, but it is a statement that we can change our direction if we have the courage.

At a high level, there are a number of uses for strategic foresight in organisations:

1. Direction setting
2. Option generation
3. Pathways identification
4. Innovation sandbox

As part one of two, this post will discuss direction setting and option generation.

Direction setting

Many organisations undertake strategic planning processes that generate voluminous documents that allow management to monitor progress and manage operational activities. When asked about the direction setting that preceded the planning, most executive teams will mumble something about a vision, or the wishes of the CEO/Board or the need to continue moving somewhere. When further pushed to explain where the vision or strategic goal came from (and only in the strictest confidence) most concede that a group conversation took place, or the leader had an idea that the group latched onto as the direction for the organisation. Once set, this direction is not questioned instead it is planned for and executed.

My questions are – how does the leader or the executives know that the direction they chose was the ‘right’ or ‘best’? What options had they considered? What assumptions did they make? What did they ignore (consciously or otherwise)? How does the direction chosen align with core purpose of the organisation?

The practice of foresight is the process through which the direction setting conversation can take place in a manner that is rigourous, conscious, questioning and engaging. It demands that people are clear about the future they want to create, the tradeoffs that this may require and the options they are choosing not to pursue.

This can be an uncomfortable conversation for many executive groups. Using foresight asks people to confront the question – why am I choosing this future over another?

There are usually four phases to a foresight project/process. These might be undertaken in workshops or through research and interviews:

• Analysis –  what do we think is coming down the pipeline from the future – how far out you look is a function of the type of work you are doing.
• Interpretation – why do we think one thing and not another is important – what might really be happening, and what are our assumptions in this? We try to deepen where/how we are looking.
• Prospection – based on what we have analysed and the sense we have made of it – what are the forward views that we can construct?
• Action – what will the action be in response to the future views we have created?

Option generation

Methods such as scenarios give groups insights into the ways in which complex systems operate, and the impacts certain decisions might have on their ability to bring about a particular future state.

The conscious practice of foresight opens up the option generation space by asking groups to engage with possible interactions of current trends, emerging future issues and wildcards. The use of foresight processes to generate options for action allows assumptions to be validated, blindspots identified and present operational shortcomings noted. Traditional planning, even when done well, takes a linear view of the future. Foresight can utilise a number of tools to map out the ramifications of the intersection of trends, sense new issues and create narrative stories about what might be possible.

These first two uses of foresight assist organisations to have open and free-ranging conversations about what might be possible for them into the future.

It asks tough questions, but the payoff is that people can see more and deeply understand the risk/reward tradeoff for each direction set.

At The Dragonfly Collective we work with organisations to use futures thinking to challenge existing directions and imagine new futures, so we can go about transforming our communities and organisations to acheive them. If this is something your organisation could benefit from, ask us how we might assist!

The post How can we use the future to plan (part 1)? appeared first on The Dragonfly Collective.